Greenhouse Gas Emissions –China Has Nothing to Be Apologetic About!

By  Patrick Chi-Ping Ho

     When 40 world leaders convene through a zoom meeting these two days to exchange views on climate change, China’s actions will undoubtedly receive considerable coverage. China is, after all, the world’s second largest economy (by nominal GDP) and has featured in climate related news lately, thanks in part to its initiatives in combating climate change, and to the United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry’s visit to Shanghai last week. Among other things, China is also the world’s biggest investor in renewable energy, and an innovator in nuclear and alternative fuel technology. As such, it is natural that China’s actions will be followed closely.

      The attention that China receives in climate change coverage is, however, often biased and misleading. The media is quick to label China as the biggest current aggregate emitter of greenhouse gasses – a title China only recently inherited from the United States. While, on its face, true, the simplicity of this statistic hides and shifts the considerably greater responsibility of the developed world in causing climate change. A more comprehensive analysis of emissions reveals the inaccuracy of the label.

       Several factors demonstrate that China’s responsibility for emissions is overstated by the title of the largest current aggregate emitter. Per capita emissions, consumption-based emissions, cumulative emissions, and China’s contributions to emissions reductions thus far all demonstrate that China’s responsibility for climate change is far less than what is regularly implied in mainstream media.

        China is the world’s most populous country. On average, Chinese citizens produce, and have produced, far less emissions than their Western counterparts. As of 2017, China’s per capita emissions ranked as 41^st, and was less than half of USA’s (ranking  9^th). This is an important fact to consider, both out of a concern for fairness or even simple pragmatism in addressing climate change. On a per capita basis, the citizens of 40 other countries pollute more than those in China. Their lifestyles and situations are, in other words, less sustainable than that of the average Chinese citizen, and conversely present many more opportunities for emission reductions.

         China is also the world’s largest exporter.  Foreign consumers are major beneficiaries of Chinese production which, among other things, offers significantly lower prices. In other words, Chinese factories emit carbon to meet the demand of foreign markets. If China did not produce these goods, they would have to be produced elsewhere, and the emissions would be attributable to another country. Other countries have thus effectively “off shored” their emissions (and pollution) to China.

         Accounting emissions on the basis of consumption of goods, rather than production, clearly indicates that China’s responsibility for climate change is not as great as one might gather from media reporting. In 2004, 22.5% of China’s emissions could be traced to exports to other countries. Other numbers, such as those produced by the United Kingdom’s House of Commons in 2010, suggest that a consumption based accounting would reduce China’s emissions by 45%. Consumption based emissions calculated on a per capita basis demonstrate that the consumption of the average United States citizens is four times higher than that of the average Chinese citizen. 

         China is also a developing country which began its rapid industrialization only in the final decades of the 20th century. Western nations, which began to industrialize in the early 1800’s, have had far more time contributed to global greenhouse gas emissions – as well as reaped the economic benefits of industrialization. As of 2019, China ranked third in terms of cumulative emissions, and was responsible for approximately 12.7% of emissions. The United States, by comparison, ranked first, and was responsible for 25% of emissions, while Europe ranked second, with 22%. Furthermore, on a per capita cumulative emissions basis, China still ranks below the United States, Canada, the European Union, Japan, and Russia.

       Compared to what one might understand from everyday media reporting, these figures paint a very different picture of China’s responsibility for climate change. Saying that China is the world’s largest emitter is meaningless and misleading. China is the world’s most populous country. Its individual citizens are far less polluting, on average, than those of the developed world. The majority of its emissions have only been produced comparably recently, and, importantly, have been produced substantially for the benefit of foreign demand.

        Furthermore, China has already made great contributions to climate change mitigation. According to one study in 2014, the deepest cuts achieved thus far against climate change have been from the Montreal Protocol, the use of hydropower and nuclear power, and China’s one-child policy. China’s one-child policy is estimated to have prevented 1.3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent emissions. China is also the world’s largest hydropower producer, and has been leading in investment and innovation in nuclear power. 

          Despite its contributions to mitigation thus far, China is not shying away from assuming greater responsibility for emissions. In addition to its investment in renewables, China has, among other things, agreed to cut its emissions intensity by 60 to 65% from 2005 levels by 2030. China recognizes its status as a leading nation, and is willing to assume the “common but differentiated” share of responsibility in addressing climate change. This also calls, however, for developed countries to take on more ambitious commitments than developing countries.

        The 40 world leaders virtual Summit will reveal whether the developed world, and especially the USA which has rescinded its commitments of the Paris Accord, is ready to assume and resume their share of responsibility. In the meantime, we should question why the mainstream media is presenting such a skewed and superficial image of Chinese responsibility for climate change. Such reporting is not only unfair to the Chinese people, but also reinforces barriers to action on climate change. People in developed countries will not demand or undertake action if they do not appreciate their responsibility for climate change. This is the likely outcome if they are presented only with incomplete data that suggests that China is to blame.

       The reality is that China’s responsibility for climate change is not as simple as “biggest emitter.” A more comprehensive analysis reveals that the Chinese people have contributed far less to climate change than the people of many other countries; more importantly, it also shows the great sacrifices they have already made in mitigating the problem. China’s more recent commitments further demonstrate that it has stepped up to challenge presented by climate change. The rest of the world is now being asked to exhibit the same kind of leadership. The answer awaits in Washington.

Dr. Ho was a member of the United Nations Secretary-General's High-Level Advisory Group on Sustainable Transport,(2014-2016);  former Deputy Chairman of China Energy Fund Committee; and former Secretary of Home Affairs, HKSARG.