何志平：以伊十二天战争对香港的启示-何志平, Patrick, Chi Ping Ho

何志平：以伊十二天战争对香港的启示

何志平 | Patrick Ho
2025-07-01 17:14

<p data-track="3" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:20px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px"><strong style="border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px; width:auto">“以伊冲突”由6月13日突然爆发到21日美国参战，再至25日骤然叫停，所谓的十二天战争甫一结束，以色列、伊朗和美国这三方皆声称取得战争胜利，都达成所有既定目标。</strong>真实状况到底如何？伊朗未来何去何从？有说美以联手，伊朗政权将更迭。还有说美以伊三方共演大戏，各从其志，美国总统特朗普冲着诺贝尔和平奖，以炸止停，暗允以色列“中东老大”，明示伊朗“可能放松对石油制裁”；以色列总理内塔尼亚胡为延续政治生命，巩固权位；伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊假意弃核，暂逃制裁换博弈窗口等。</p> <div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:18px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:18px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px"> <p style="border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; margin-bottom:0px !important; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; padding:0px; width:auto"><img src="/data/uploads/cphohk20160125c30343208188ff3d90/tiny_editor/files/d51049482b4447d4904701a3cbd347b0_tplv-tt-origin-web_gif.jpeg" style="width: 100%;"></p> </div> <section contenteditable="false" data-arttype="tit_6" data-attr="[{&quot;margin_lr&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;padding_wrap&quot;,&quot;val&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}},{&quot;padding_top&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;padding_wrap&quot;,&quot;val&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}},{&quot;padding_bottom&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;padding_wrap&quot;,&quot;val&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}}]" style="margin:27px 0;"> <section class="atrWidget widget_tit_6"> <section class="j_margin_lr j_padding_top j_padding_bottom"> <section style="display: table;width: 100%;"> <section contenteditable="false" style="display:inline-block;padding-bottom: 5px;min-width: 21px;vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" src="/resource/img/article/tit_6_left.png" style="width: 21px;height:19px;"></section> <section contenteditable="true" style="display:inline-block;width:calc(100% - 42px);padding: 0 8px;"> <p style="color:#333333; font-size:20px; line-height:1.5"><strong>冲突三方各取所得</strong></p> </section> <section contenteditable="false" style="display:inline-block;padding-top: 5px;min-width: 21px;vertical-align: top;"><img alt="" src="/resource/img/article/tit_6_right.png" style="width: 21px;height:19px;"></section> </section> </section> </section> </section> <p data-track="5" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:20px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">特朗普在6月25日荷兰北约峰会后表示，美伊将于下周会谈讨论潜在核协议，随即又警告“以伊冲突”或会再次爆发。此前他率先宣布美国地堡炸弹“摧毁”伊朗核计划，大幅强调美国胜利。但据美媒报道，美国情报机构初步评估认为伊朗浓缩铀库存并未消除，其大部分深埋地下深处的核工厂未遭不可逆转伤害，一些离心机仍完好无损，伊朗核能力只需几个月就可恢复。这与特朗普公开说法相悖，他通过社交媒体，怒怼纽约时报和美国有线电视新闻网联手刊登诋毁文章，威胁将诉至法院。</p> <p data-track="6" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:20px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px"><strong style="border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px; width:auto">伊朗当晚在首都革命广场举行“胜利庆典”，数万民众欢呼胜利，高喊“美国以色列去死”，声援伊朗武装部队。</strong>内塔尼亚胡在停火后声明，以色列消除了伊朗正推进研制的核武器威胁和2万枚弹道导弹威胁，“取得了历史性胜利”。</p> <p data-track="7" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:20px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">从表面看，三方都有理由宣称胜利。以色列通过重创伊朗军事、核能力等，为内塔尼亚胡缓解国内尖锐矛盾及政治压力，尤其是哈马斯2023年10月的袭击，使其能力信誉备受质疑。美国通过军事介入和外交干旋，既空袭打击了伊朗核计划，又避免美军人员伤亡，还巩固其在中东战略主导地位。特朗普的停火协议，更被美化为“中东和平的里程碑”，为他赢得“和平缔造者”形象。伊朗尽管损失惨重，却因不屈意志及强烈反击，激发民族自尊心，能化危为机，政权反而稳定。虽未改变战局总体态势，但哈梅内伊仍牢牢掌控统治权，各党派也表示听从指挥，团结共御外辱。</p> <p data-track="8" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:20px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">究其背后，特朗普对伊朗先揍一顿再示好，其本质一是“大棒加胡萝卜”，极限施压与诱谈相结合；二也是一种策略与分化，极可能引起伊朗内部争论及矛盾；三是以色列不过美国“小弟”，特朗普只要允其做中东老大，可说打就打，叫停便停。<strong style="border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px; width:auto">伊朗只有完全放弃核武器，特朗普可能才会开恩，考虑对石油放松制裁。否则，以色列随时开打，美欧恣意参与。</strong></p> <div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:18px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:18px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px"> <p style="border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; margin-bottom:0px !important; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; padding:0px; width:auto"><img src="/data/uploads/cphohk20160125c30343208188ff3d90/tiny_editor/files/6a40ccfaa1ca42f484f3b4a29ad7cf4c_tplv-tt-origin-web_gif.jpeg" style="width: 100%;"></p> </div> <section contenteditable="false" data-arttype="tit_6" data-attr="[{&quot;margin_lr&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;padding_wrap&quot;,&quot;val&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}},{&quot;padding_top&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;padding_wrap&quot;,&quot;val&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}},{&quot;padding_bottom&quot;:{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;padding_wrap&quot;,&quot;val&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}}]" style="margin:27px 0;"> <section class="atrWidget widget_tit_6"> <section class="j_margin_lr j_padding_top j_padding_bottom"> <section style="display: table;width: 100%;"> <section contenteditable="false" style="display:inline-block;padding-bottom: 5px;min-width: 21px;vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" src="/resource/img/article/tit_6_left.png" style="width: 21px;height:19px;"></section> <section contenteditable="true" style="display:inline-block;width:calc(100% - 42px);padding: 0 8px;"> <p style="color:#333333; font-size:20px; line-height:1.5"><strong>“软对抗”需规管，伊朗政权更迭取决于民意</strong></p> </section> <section contenteditable="false" style="display:inline-block;padding-top: 5px;min-width: 21px;vertical-align: top;"><img alt="" src="/resource/img/article/tit_6_right.png" style="width: 21px;height:19px;"></section> </section> </section> </section> </section> <p data-track="10" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:20px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">经此一役，伊朗的战略威慑能力需要重新估计。近年伊朗靠代理人战争，看似“风生水起”，实则“外强中干”，防御体系在以色列摩萨德情报叠加现代化军事体系面前不堪一击。其最大问题是民心不一，被以色列渗透得“千疮百孔”，到处内鬼，摩萨德在伊朗想杀就杀，为所欲为。内塔尼亚胡本次目标先是摧毁伊朗核设施，后又升级为推动伊朗政权更迭。无论能否实现，只要裹挟美国下水，他的位置就稳当。不过伊朗政府纵然统治疲弱，军事挨打，不代表当下政权就会更迭。</p> <p data-track="11" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:20px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px"><strong style="border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px; width:auto">首先，民心没有完全归顺，内鬼太多，亲美亲以。伊朗人口构成为60%波斯人、15%阿塞拜疆人、10%库尔德人、2%阿拉伯人和1%俾路支人。</strong>1979年宗教领袖阿塞拜疆人霍姆尼发动伊斯兰革命，波斯巴列维王朝覆灭，伊朗也从中东最时尚开放西化之都变为穿戴黑头巾等极度保守国家。但波斯人仍多以古波斯文明为荣，他们对现状和伊斯兰政权普遍不满，甚至高度抵触，怀念以往巴拉维王朝西式开放生活，推崇西方自由民主价值观。</p> <p data-track="12" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:20px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">在46年阿塞拜疆什叶派伊斯兰政权统治下，却有波斯亲美分子长期浸透伊朗政府，不断布局制造“软对抗”政策，致使伊朗政权不断左右摇摆，对华忽冷忽热，对美依依不舍，都是伊朗政权当中的前朝怀恋者在捣鬼。然而目前，伊朗民众对美以的狂轰乱炸，尚无大规模抗议政府无能行为，以及相关群众组织运动。</p> <p data-track="13" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:20px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px"><strong style="border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px; width:auto">其次，伊朗军权统一，哈梅内伊手握85%军权，特别是伊朗革命军，没有内战。</strong>且其他政治反对派多年来屡遭控制，无自成体系，海外组织也四分五裂，尚未建立所谓流亡民主政府的具体计划、反对派有效联盟和架构。</p> <div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:18px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:18px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px"> <p style="border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; margin-bottom:0px !important; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; padding:0px; width:auto"><img src="/data/uploads/cphohk20160125c30343208188ff3d90/tiny_editor/files/26555d4f99cb4e898858b70e2c823167_tplv-tt-origin-web_gif.jpeg" style="width: 100%;"></p> </div> <p data-track="14" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:20px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px"><strong style="border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px; width:auto">其三，美国与以色列意欲搅动伊朗政权更迭，实是多年来不能有效推动伊朗“颜色革命”的最后一击。</strong>自伊斯兰革命派上台，神权内政紧抓学挍、宗教和道德教育，大多教年轻伊朗人尽管渴望经济发展和进步及生活富裕，但在保守主义多年封闭熏陶下，西风引诱对伊朗年轻一代影响甚微。伊朗民众不一定愿意回至从前，接受.王朝立宪名义下之君主专制统治。只老一辈前朝余孽，不断跟随流亡美国的巴拉维末代王储礼隆. 巴拉维，不仅出谋献策，还里应外合。而供奉什叶派霍姆尼 圣权的伊朗政府相当于两端作战，对外要对抗以色列和美国，对内力抗内乱分裂分子和其意识形态，甚至还要防备沙特、卡塔尔等逊尼派伊斯兰国家背后插刀。</p> <p data-track="15" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; color:#222222; font-family:&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;,&quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;,&quot;WenQuanYi Micro Hei&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,Arial,sans-serif; font-size:18px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px !important; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:20px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px"><strong style="border:0px; box-sizing:border-box; font-weight:700; margin:0px; padding:0px; width:auto">说到底，未来伊朗是继续维持神权统治，还是政教分离，决定权在于伊朗民众。伊朗一日不消除内部“软对抗”，不彻底“自我革命”，充分凝聚民心及调动国民力量，最终只会被他人“革命”。</strong>伊朗政权内眷恋前王朝势力的软作对，好比年前香港动乱时的恋殖暴力，时到今天，这心态还存在吗？昨天是香港国安法实施五周年，今天是香港回归祖国二十八周年纪念日，相信美以伊十二天战争内幕可予香港一个提醒，不能好了伤疤忘了痛！</p>